MARCH 1st, 2024 | RYAN TYLER

When Losing Looks Inevitable, Just CHange The Rules

The Liberals and NDP are about to announce some electoral reforms.

Justin Trudeau never really wanted to reform Canada's electoral system. He's not a fan of proportional representation, because it might give parties like the PPC more power. He set Maryam Monsef up for failure in her early attempts to consult the public, because he prefers the tried and true first-past-the-post system that has worked for the Liberal Party for over a century. However, now that his party is certain to lose miserably in the next election, could he and Jagmeet Singh have an ace up their sleeves?

Talk is now swirling that the Liberal-NDP partnership is looking at electoral reform before the next election. So far, they've ruled out a complete overhaul, but can we trust them?

They say they're only looking at improving access by making the voting period longer and by expanding access to mail-in voting, but as both the Liberals and NDP slide lower in the polls, could they become desperate enough to rewrite the rules of our democracy? At the moment, Conservatives are projected to win a majority of at least 190 seats, while Liberals would barely scrape by with 80. Under proportional representation, the Conservatives would win 135 seats and the Liberals and NDP would collectively win about 150 or more. Throw in some extra Green and Bloc seats and the number for left-wing parties exceeds a majority.

Proportional representation would block Conservatives from forming a majority government. Without enough seats from parties like the PPC, Canada wouldn't see any real conservative or right-leaning legislation in the foreseeable future. Minus a seismic shift in voter sentiments, Canada would become a permanently left-wing country, with zero hope of ever changing course. If the Liberals and NDP are serious about staying in power, they would probably attempt to overhaul the entire system.

This would go against what Justin Trudeau believes, but in a time of certain loss, he might reconsider.

If Liberals still see hope of regaining a solid future majority under the current system, they would choose to stick with it. In the end, it will come down to what Liberals think is best for Liberals. This long-term vision would need to be strong and certain enough to drown out Trudeau's passionate hatred of Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre. That hatred and fear alone might be enough for Trudeau, Singh and both party caucuses to consider rigging the system in their favour.

If every party except Conservatives jumped on board with such reforms, there wouldn't be much anyone could do to stop it. Right now, every party except the Conservative Party has said they would support a complete overhaul to proportional representation. The truth is, if the Liberals and NDP brought forward legislation to fully reform Canada's electoral system, it would pass.

The one party that will decide if the system gets an overhaul is the Liberal Party.

If Liberals decide against electoral reform, it won't happen. They hold the balance of power. With Conservatives opposed, a Liberal refusal would tilt the scale against any reforms. The NDP, Greens and Bloc want proportional representation because it would mean more seats, but the Conservatives and Liberals have never needed it. The current system has served both parties well.

Under proportional representation, the Liberals, too, might never see another majority again. This is why they've been against reforms and why they made sure that Maryam Monsef failed so miserably that it would never be brought up again. By sacrificing her as the lamb, they were able to say, “We tried.”

In party politics, self-preservation is a priority. Under proportional representation, the Liberal Party would not only lose seats and minimize their chances of ever winning another majority, they would, in turn, blow a hole in their fundraising and finances. Knowing that other parties could win seats or tilt the scales in Ottawa, donors would shift to those parties. The same would happen to Conservatives and the NDP.

Seeing the Greens as more capable under proportional representation, many environmental groups and donors would shift their resources away from the NDP and Liberals. Libertarians and more hardened right-wing groups would move from Conservative to PPC—a populist party that could win up to 10 seats under proportional representation.

If self-interest takes precedence over long-term ideological goals, these facts will be enough for Liberals to kibosh any real electoral reforms.

Even with the long-term ideological goal of stopping conservatives forever, there is no guarantee that Canada's culture won't change and slowly shift toward more right-leaning sentiments. Economic conditions and cultural changes have been known to turn liberals into stringent conservatives over time. As Canada's economy falters and as cultural customs shift, proportional representation could elevate fringe, right-wing parties in the future. This, of course, is what liberals and socialists fear the most.

In 20 years, Canada could become more conservative and radical. However, under first-past-the-post, at least Liberals would have a chance of winning more seats without the popular vote and keeping their financials intact. Under proportional representation, the Liberals could break and become buried under a heap of new, right-wing and populist coalitions in the House Of Commons. Even a slight 5% shift to the right over the next decade could alter the political landscape under proportional representation—in ways that would really, really, really aggravate and traumatize Liberals.

For the NDP, the current system put them into official opposition in 2011. If Jagmeet Singh cares more about the NDP than about “permanently” blocking conservatives, he would see the current system as a better tool for returning his party to official opposition.

If Trudeau cares more about himself and his own short-term wins, he may indeed push for an electoral overhaul. He has mentioned the ranked ballot system as his preference over proportional representation, which wouldn't change much of anything in terms of outcomes. If beating and blocking Pierre Poilievre is his main priority, we may see significant changes in our electoral system, as long as the Liberals think they can't gain any ground and regain some hope of winning another minority in the next election. In the end, even if Canada shifts to the right in a decade, Trudeau has enough money and fame to move anywhere else in the world.

An overhaul to proportional representation could depend on a battle of egos between Trudeau and his own party, and on whether Justin Trudeau is a self-centred egomaniac focused on a short-term win.