April 1st, 2024 | RYAN TYLER

Why The End Of Canada Wouldn't Be A Bad Thing

History is filled with stories about new beginnings.

There has been a lot of negative news over the past few months. Canada has dropped in the happiness index, the RCMP is worried Canadians might revolt when they realize how bad their situation is, and the next federal budget projects even more massive deficits. Homelessness is rising because of a housing crisis, insolvencies are climbing, wages are stagnating, and the healthcare system is slowly imploding. It's almost like Canada is rapidly falling apart in front of our eyes and there isn't anything we can do but watch. However, if Canada is truly collapsing, history teaches it might not be such a bad thing.

Empires rise and fall. It has been happening throughout human history. What rises from the ashes of a fallen society is often something better and more enduring. When the Roman Empire fractured, other empires filled the gap and new societies emerged. The Holy Roman and Byzantine Empires eventually became other empires—which eventually became Italy, France, Germany, and various other European countries we know today. There were some challenges along the way, but better things emerged from the ashes of past societies.

Like those other societies, Canada won't last forever.

Canadians need to come to terms with reality. We're already 157 years in and most democracies have been lucky to last this long. The average lifespan of an empire is only 250 years. Some have lasted longer, others have lasted much less time. If you ask some historians and scholars, they would call Canada an extension of the American Empire. That means that if the American Empire falls, we fall.

The United States will celebrate its 250th anniversary in 2026.

The end of Canada won't look much different than the end of any other society in history. People will struggle to define when the end started, or what the end really looks like. However, Canada can probably be considered finished when two or more major provinces separate. When economically powerful provinces start pulling the plug, Canada ends. As things get worse, public sentiments will begin to change dramatically over time and separatism will become stronger in the West and Quebec. As the social situation deteriorates, so will patriotism and national loyalty. Animosity and resentment will open cracks between regions across the country.

As sentiments change, new political parties and movements will form. Right now, barely a quarter of Alberta's population is interested in separating. As things get worse and federal governments continue to fail, that number will grow. Once it comes close to half, things will get real—like they did in Quebec during the 1990s. Although British Columbia has minimal separatist sentiments, the province would be forced to act if its physical connection to Ottawa was severed by a newly formed independent Alberta (and maybe Saskatchewan).

All of this is far off in our future, but not as far as some people might think. The more rapidly Canada deteriorates, the more rapid the transformation of public attitudes will be. During the Great Depression, movements popped up across the world like hives, all at once, in response to the ongoing economic strife and destruction. People were desperate, so they turned to fascists like Hitler and Mussolini. In Russia, they turned to Marxism. Even in the West, communist and fascistic movements planted their seeds during the Great Depression. In a better off United States, massive reforms like The New Deal happened and Americans re-elected the same guy four times—the first two times were historic landslides. Around the world, everyone else went to war.

Things that no one expects can happen quickly during economic catastrophes.

Economic collapse destroys most empires. Sometimes it's a slow rolling economic decay, other times it's a rapid collapse into chaos, poverty, and social unrest. Sometimes it's both, the latter followed by the former. In either case, it leads to people forming factions and movements that eventually take power, either peacefully or by force. In some cases, movements come to power peacefully, only to crush the whole system and all their foes with brute force—like the Nazis did. When Canada finally breaks up into several different pieces, along with the United States, we can only hope it happens peacefully.

Overall, in the long term, the potential to build something better is limitless.

What It Might Look Like

Canada as we know it will look different for our great grandkids, no matter what our opinions and biases might tell us now. The land we call Canada might not be called Canada anymore. A lot will change in the next couple of generations, but it's hard to know exactly what everything might look like in 100 years.

Regionally, we can only imagine what North America will look like when the society we currently know breathes its last breath. Using current divisions and cultural divides, we can make some guesses.

Along ethnic and cultural lines, much of Northern Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Northern Ontario could go to sovereign indigenous cultures, namely the Cree and Ojibway. As separatist sentiments rise, many First Nations may join the club and begin calling for their own full autonomy and sovereignty. As the traditionally white, English provinces and regions begin fighting, indigenous tribes and cultures may find reasons to chart their own paths.

The Maritimes, Quebec, and parts of Ontario may break into competing cultural factions. The Scottish and Irish roots in Atlantic Canada have created different customs in the far East, while Quebec's French roots have differentiated the province from the rest of Canada since its inception. The Northwest Territories and Nunavut would likely join Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Mostly English and white British Columbia, Southern Alberta, and Southern Saskatchewan would find common ground on several fundamental issues and likely forge a path forward together as a separate nation. Parts of Northern British Columbia could go to indigenous tribes, but whites make up a majority of the population there.

Mostly white Yukon would probably join B.C., Alberta, and Saskatchewan.

A lot of theorists and Western separatists have this perfect vision of a perfect map drawing out British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba as some unrealistic, utopian nation. The reality wouldn't be that simple or perfect. Even the whitest parts of Manitoba are more politically and culturally aligned with Ontario. In reality, Manitoba should never be included in a Western separatist movement. Manitobans would be more likely to join Ontario than the West.

If First Nations chased their own sovereignty and somehow succeeded, this could be a more realistic map of what our post-Canadian landscape might look like:

This, of course, excludes any possible armed conflicts or interventions from the United States along the way. Our friends in the south would probably be dealing with their own fractures and cultural breakdowns. It could be conceivable that Western Canada aligns with, or joins, secession movements in the United States—or outright joins their Union. When Canada breaks down socially and economically, anything will be possible.

Such a situation would also open possibilities for foreign nations like Russia to stake claims on the Arctic and even parts of Northern Canada. The United States, if it remains intact, could also exploit a divided and broken Canada. Without adequate armed forces and alliances, any of these new nations would be at risk of quickly losing their sovereignty.

Natural resources and trade would be the keys to building adequate alliances and armed forces.

Natural Resources

Provinces like Saskatchewan and Alberta would no longer be beholden to Ottawa's ideological constraints on their energy sectors. Equalization and transfer payments would become a thing of the past. Atlantic Canada and Quebec would be forced to fend for themselves without having the ability to rely on confederation.

To make ends meet, Quebec and Atlantic Canada would be forced to tap into their abundant natural resources.

Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec have an abundance of cobalt and lithium, as well as timber. Coal can be found across British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan has grain, potash, and uranium. Alberta has oil, while B.C. and Quebec have natural gas. The Yukon, NWT, Nunavut, Ontario, and Quebec have an abundance of various minerals and metals the rest of the world needs, including gold and nickel. Atlantic Canada has offshore natural gas and oil, along with a fishing industry.

Each new sovereign country could do as it pleases with its natural resources—of which there are many.

Endless Opportunities

The leaders of Greece and Germany recently implied they would be happy to buy Canadian natural gas, but Justin Trudeau continues to stand in the way. Currently, cobalt used to make electric cars is mined by children in Africa. Much of that could be stopped by ethical cobalt from various parts of post-Canada. Saudi oil, Russian natural gas, and African cobalt could all be flooded out of the market by ethical, cheap, abundant alternatives.

In the name of environmental zealotry, federal governments are holding Canadian provinces back from reaching their full economic potential.

Artificial Intelligence, Technology, Innovation, Tourism

With resources comes wealth; with wealth comes investment opportunities. As the speed of AI ramps up, it's likely that future defence systems will rely heavily on autonomous technology and machines. This creates new possibilities for national defence without the requirement for human bodies and sacrifice. Since the the populations of these new post-Canadian countries would be sparse, technology and artificial intelligence would be good investments.

With its pristine and majestic Rocky Mountains, Western post-Canada would continue to bring in significant tourism—which would add to its wealth.

Investing in new technologies would be wise, not only to balance out any shortages in national defence and labour supply, but to attract talent. With talent comes innovation and more investments; with innovation comes the potential for new technological revolutions. Any one of these new post-Canadian countries could lead the way in medicine, artificial intelligence, and other technologies by investing their revenues from natural resources.

It's Not The Apocalypse

Canadians need to think outside the box while considering the realities taught by history. Rather than fearing the inevitable end, they need to accept it as a new beginning. Many, if not most, of Canada's provinces would be better off on their own, separated and divorced from one another. At the moment, Canada is facing a “productivity crisis”, but most of that could change without Ottawa's authoritarian and regressive federal policies.

Each new country could control its own immigration, its own trade agreements, and its own revenues without the interference of an overbearing federal government. Even if Conservatives or other non-liberal parties take control, it would only be a matter of time before Canada falls back into the hands of regressive left-wing authoritarians.

The only real long-term solution is for Canada to break up.

Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada have an abundance of resources they have refused to exploit at the expense of Western provinces. Because of the federal welfare system, they have been able to appease their eco-zealots while collecting pay cheques from B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan. Under their own sovereignty, without transfer and equalization payments, things would change quickly.

On it's own, Quebec could implement all the speech and language laws it wants.

The “end” may not arrive tomorrow, but it's coming. Accepting this reality is about realizing that things change, they don't end. It's not apocalyptic. The end of Canada as we know it won't be the end of the world, it would be the beginning of something different. All the doom and gloom about Canada ceasing to exist, or being “destroyed”, is empty political rhetoric designed to scare voters. When we take time to think about what the end really means, it seems a lot brighter than an apocalypse. It looks more like something we should let happen.