MARCH 1st, 2024 | Allan Ray

March And The Season Of Warfare

'Tis the season.

The month of March, known to the ancient Romans as Martius, is a period steeped in a history of warfare and conquest. Named after Mars, the Roman god of war, March heralded the resumption of military campaigns after the winter months.

In the early Roman calendar, which was a lunar system purportedly introduced by Romulus, the legendary founder of Rome, March was the first month of the year. As such, it symbolized new beginnings and was a time for preparation and initiation. The advent of spring brought milder weather, making it logistically feasible for armies to maneuver and sustain long campaigns. The ground thawed, allowing for easier movement of troops and chariots, and the rebirth of vegetation provided natural resources necessary for the support of armies on the march.

The month of March was thus dedicated to Mars, embodying the vigour and renewal of military strength. The ancient Romans celebrated a series of festivals in honour of Mars, including the Feriae Marti, the Equirria, and the Mamuralia. These festivals were marked by rituals and ceremonies that sought to secure the god's favour for the coming battles. Soldiers would partake in purification rites and offer sacrifices to beseech Mars for victory over their enemies.

Historically, March as the season of warfare has its roots in practicality as much as it does in religious tradition. Armies in antiquity, much like Rome's legions, were heavily reliant on seasonal cycles for their campaigns. The logistics of feeding, sheltering, and moving troops were daunting tasks that required careful planning. The campaigning season, therefore, began in March, when soldiers could live off the land, and it typically lasted until October before the onset of winter, which would render many ancient battlefields impassable.

Military Campaigns

The significance of March in the context of military history is underscored by numerous historical events. For instance, Julius Caesar's crossing of the Rubicon in 49 BCE, which precipitated a civil war, took place in January but his rapid march towards Rome and eventual victory over Pompey's forces unfolded as the campaigning season began. Similarly, the Ides of March, the 15th of the month, etched forever in history due to the assassination of Caesar in 44 BCE, reflects the high political stakes that coincided with the military campaigns of the era.

The seasonal onset of warfare in March shaped the strategies and fortunes of empires beyond Rome. For example, the Persian king, Cyrus the Great, launched his campaign against the Babylonians in 539 BCE, leading to a swift victory and the fall of the Babylonian empire in the same year. Alexander The Great also commenced his invasion of Asia Minor in the spring of 334 BCE, setting the stage for a series of conquests that would reshape the ancient world.

The legacy of March as the season of warfare persisted into the Middle Ages and modern times, where the ebb and flow of military activities followed a similar seasonal pattern. The Hundred Years’ War between England and France saw many campaigns initiated with the advent of spring, allowing for the optimal use of the terrain and the mustering of feudal levies.

The Iraq invasion, also known as the Second Gulf War, or Operation Iraqi Freedom, began on March 20, 2003. A coalition led by the United States launched a military operation to oust Saddam Hussein's regime and assert control over the country. The invasion marked the beginning of a long and controversial conflict that lasted until December 18, 2011, when the last US combat troops withdrew from Iraq.

Russia's annexation of Crimea took place in March 2014. Following a controversial referendum held on March 16, in which the majority of Crimean voters supported joining the Russian Federation. The Russian parliament formally annexed Crimea on March 18, 2014. This move was met with international condemnation, as many countries, including the United States and the European Union, considered the referendum illegitimate and the annexation a violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Many view the annexation as the beginning of the current Russia-Ukraine war.

Martius, holds a unique place in the chronicles of war. It is a reminder of the interplay between human endeavors and the natural world, where the practicalities of ancient warfare coincided with the veneration of a god whose very essence embodied the spirit of conquest. The historical facts surrounding March as the season of warfare illustrate the cyclical nature of conflict and the enduring influence of ancient traditions that have shaped the rhythms of military history. As we reflect on this period, it is a testament to the enduring legacy of the ancients in our understanding of war and its role in the story of civilization.

2024

As we enter March, several regions present a risk of military confrontation. These potential conflicts are driven by a combination of historical grievances, strategic rivalries, and the aspirations of national powers. Martius serves as a reminder that the spectre of war looms over unresolved tensions, urging the international community to address the underlying causes of potential conflicts before they escalate beyond control.

One obvious potential flashpoint is within the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia; and another within the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Another area of concern is the South China Sea, where overlapping territorial claims and assertive posturing by China have heightened tensions with neighbouring countries and the United States. China's continued militarization of artificial islands and its aggressive naval moves could lead to a miscalculation or an unintended confrontation involving regional powers such as Vietnam, the Philippines, or an extra-regional presence such as the U.S. Navy, especially if freedom of navigation operations are challenged.

The Korean Peninsula remains a perennial hot-spot, with North Korea's nuclear ambitions and ballistic missile tests posing a significant challenge to regional stability. We could see an escalation if North Korea elects to conduct a major provocation, such as a nuclear test or a long-range missile launch, to strengthen its bargaining position or in response to perceived threats from South Korea and the United States.

In the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program remains a contentious issue. Israel has consistently voiced its willingness to take unilateral military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and if tensions escalate, a pre-emptive strike could trigger wider regional hostilities involving Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias in various theatres.

The Taiwan Strait is another potential flashpoint. Increased assertiveness from Beijing regarding its claims over Taiwan, coupled with the island's pursuit of international recognition and self-defense, could lead to a crisis. Any significant move by China to change the status quo, such as a blockade or a direct threat of invasion, could compel the United States and its allies to respond, given their interests in the region and informal security commitments to Taiwan.

The situation in the Balkans, with its complex mix of ethnic tensions, unresolved territorial disputes, and external influences from both the West and Russia, could deteriorate into conflict. Bosnia and Herzegovina, in particular, faces internal divisions that, if exacerbated, could reignite violence in a region still healing from the wars of the 1990s.

In Africa, the Sahel region continues to be destabilized by jihadist insurgencies and inter-communal violence. The potential withdrawal or reconfiguration of French and European forces in countries like Mali could create a security vacuum that might not only intensify existing conflicts, but also encourage regional powers to intervene, potentially leading to a broader conflagration.

What will the next 31 days bring?