June 1st, 2024 | RYAN TYLER

Tides Have Turned: A Federal Election Analysis

The cards are finally stacked against Justin Trudeau.

Justin Trudeau's seemingly eternal shine has finally worn off. The past two elections made it look like beating the Liberals would be statistically impossible for the foreseeable future, with stubborn strongholds in Toronto and the Maritimes holding us back, but things have changed. Not a single opinion poll looks good for Trudeau and the trend has been getting worse. Without speaking too soon, the tides appear to have turned in Canada. My cautious forecast suggests the Liberals won't be able to dig themselves out of this hole.

I would never be dumb enough to rule out a Trudeau comeback, but it's looking less likely. It's not impossible, but the statistical probability of a Liberal recovery is lower than it has ever been. Poll after poll shows Trudeau's losses deepening in some of the most important places across the country. Our election tracker shows the Conservatives holding a steady double digit lead, while individual polls from a multitude of pollsters show Liberals sinking deeper.

The most interesting thing in these polls is what looks a lot like a cultural shift.

I have always talked about a much-needed cultural shift in Canada and how it would be the only way to really beat the Liberals. I don't think we can solidly confirm it is happening just yet, but what normally happens when Liberals become unpopular is not happening this time. The usual things aren't following their usual patterns. Things aren't playing out how they usually do.

Normally, the NDP picks up the support that bleeds away from Liberals. The 2011 election was the most notable example of where the Liberal vote goes when people are dissatisfied with Canada's “natural governing party”. Jack Layton sprung his party into official opposition for the first time and Liberals came closer to extinction than they have ever been. When Layton died and Trudeau stepped onto the scene with his last name and pretty face, things went back to normal.

Today, every poll has confirmed a new reality.

Both the Liberals and NDP are sinking together, while Poilievre's Conservatives appear to be skyrocketting into super-majority territory. This could easily be attributed to Trudeau's scandals and failures being propped up and supported by Jagmeet Singh—or, it could point to some sort of political, cultural, and economic awakening. Or, it could point to both. One could be the result of the other.

Since I'm a realist, I'm not going to say that Canadians are waking up. I don't have enough confidence in my fellow citizens and I have been alive long enough to have seen a lot of disappointments. Canadian democracy often doles out the worst possible outcomes, so this time might not be any different. However, there are some major differences from previous elections.

When the NDP have horrible leaders, like Alexa McDonough and Audrey McLaughlin, their support usually goes to the Liberals. In 2000, McDonough's poor leadership put Jean Chretien to 40% in popular support. In 1980, 1984 and 1988, Ed Broadbent's popularity split the lefty vote and helped put Mulroney in power.

In 2024, none of this appears to be happening.

Much of it could be attributed to both Trudeau and Singh being equally unpopular—but I have problems with that idea. In my forty plus years of existence, I have never seen New Democrats flip their ideology to the right because they hated both party leaders. Whether provincially or federally, Dippers have always hated conservatives so much that they have been willing to stop them at all costs. If it meant having to vote for a centrist French asshole with a saggy face, they would have done it to stop conservatives. They voted for Alison Redford in 2012 to stop Danielle Smith in Alberta.

New Democrats hate conservatives too much to compromise—or, at least, they did up until now?

The support the NDP are losing has to be going somewhere. The Green Party is only up a little bit compared to how much Singh's NDP have lost in the past year. Singh finished the 2021 election at 17%, but his party is now sinking to 15% according to Nanos, Abacus, and Mainstreet. The Greens are hovering close to where they finished 2021, without much of a gain. Even under Elizabeth May, their support is barely above 4%. Mathematically, all the Liberal support should be going either to the NDP or to the Greens like it has in previous elections, but it's not. The NDP's missing numbers should be going to Liberals or Greens, but that's not happening. 

Without jumping the gun, it's safe to say this could be the beginning of a slight cultural shift. I don't think leftist voters will ever give up on issues of abortion, LGBTQ rights and immigration—but they could put those issues on the back-burner if their economic situations are worsening. In city centres, where many leftist voters live and vote, the cost of living has out-paced many rural communities.

Up until recently, the NDP has always been “for the little guys”. My great-grandparents told me this when I turned 18. Naturally, being a clueless and disengaged teen, I listened to them and voted for the Saskatchewan NDP for the first and only time in my life. By my early twenties, I was a hardcore libertarian. Now, I'm sensible enough to know that extreme socialism and extreme libertarianism lead to the same place: the consolidation of power in the hands of a few.

Under Trudeau, the Liberal Party has moved from the classic centre to the far left—right into NDP territory. I believe it is this transition and a series of failed socialist policies that has driven people further to the right on a lot of issues in Canada. Under Trudeau, Canadians have experienced much of what the extreme left has been pushing since the early 2000s, including open borders, modern monetary theory, and sexual diversity.

Many socialists have come to realize their own policies don't work. The light socialist voters, who don't really know what the word means, have caught a glimpse of real socialist policies in action. In B.C., the province reversed its legalization of hard drugs after deaths and overdoses increased dramatically—contrary to what “experts” had predicted. Across the whole country, Trudeau's immigration policies have crippled the housing market and crushed the supply. Crime is out of control and the punishments for the most severe offences are laughable. Overall, Canada has embraced destructive and clownish policies under Trudeau's Liberals that have hurt low-income and socialist voters the most.

Jagmeet Singh's support for Trudeau and his policies speaks for itself.

The NDP is no longer viewed as the party for the little guys. Their Rolex-wearing leader is an absolute farce and sellout. Provincially, NDP governments have failed dramatically and caused economic harms that could take decades to fix. On a social level, their policies are harming children and society's most vulnerable. From supporting free drugs to gender dysphoria and mental illness, NDP and Liberal policies have failed spectacularly across the country and average Canadians are noticing.

People only notice something when it negatively affects them. Years of clown world policies are finally catching up and hitting Canadians where it hurts.

Pierre Polievre and his right-wing counterparts are sounding more like advocates for “the little guy” than the NDP. As Canadians struggle to pay their bills, Poilievre is the one piping up and speaking up. Of all members of parliament, his expenses are among the lowest. While Trudeau forks over hundreds of thousands in taxpayer dollars for groceries, nannies, and vacations, Poilievre is pinching his pennies. While Trudeau arrogantly advocates for more carbon taxes, Poilievre does the opposite.

As their policies continue to fail, the Liberals have doubled down on the social issues that have worked for them in the past. They'll continue to call Conservatives racist for questioning immigration, homophobic for not marching in every pride parade, and misogynistic for not constantly talking about protecting abortion rights. One issue, however, has fallen on deaf ears among Canada's immigrant community.

Trans ideology has proven to be a contentious issue among Canada's growing Muslim, Catholic and Hindu communities.

Last fall, protests erupted across Canada at various schools. Together with Christians and members of the “trucker” crowd, many Muslims came together to protest the push for LGBTQ issues and trans ideology in schools. The media tried to brush the protests off as “far right”, but the narrative began to crumble on social media as videos of women in burqas holding signs began to circulate. Then, the narrative shifted to sparse counter-protests by trans activists. Eventually, the media gave up its coverage and the protests continued quietly.

This is another aspect of Trudeau's immigration policy that is set to backfire in the next federal election.

Filipinos are staunch Catholics. Many Ukrainian refugees are Orthodox. Most African migrants are hardcore Christians with specific beliefs and customs. Indians come from a strict Hindu culture and caste system. Most immigrants from the Middle East are Muslim. Most—if not all—of Justin Trudeau's two million new Canadians subscribe to a culture that has no room for a silly and dangerous ideology that embraces thoroughly unscientific and unorthodox dogmas. To many immigrants, the idea of exposing young children to sexual preferences and LGBTQ issues is unheard of. Furthermore, it's unacceptable.

Trudeau is left with two choices. He can either abandon his hard-left base of privileged white supporters, or he can abandon the immigrant vote. Neither choice bodes well for Liberals in 2025. Losing either will significantly harm Trudeau, but judging by his double-down on trans rights and abortion, he has made the gamble. His bet is on hoping he can find another way to seduce immigrants in big city centres.

Mathematically, there are still more white liberals and socialists than non-white immigrants in Canada. The challenge comes down to cities like Toronto and Vancouver, which hold a healthy number of seats, as well as massive numbers of newcomers. As opinion polls indicate, it's no coincidence that Trudeau's support is finally starting to crack in urban and suburban Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal. Combined with the cost of living, the immigrant vote is undoubtedly playing a role in Trudeau's decline among urban voters.

This will compel Trudeau to do a big city education and housing push, while balancing his pander-machine to focus on what matters to mentally ill, purple-haired single moms.

As for other factors,Trudeau is past eight years in office. By next year, he will have served about as much time as Stephen Harper. As is the case in most democracies, once a leader reaches eight years, the electorate has grown tired of them. Regardless of how the economy is doing, a prime minister or president reaches their expiry at around this mark. When Harper lost, the economy was doing fairly well. Right now, not only is Trudeau expired, the economy is flailing and people are angry.