MAY 1st, 2024 | RYAN TYLER

British COlumbia's Alberta Situation

It's an election year, but vote-splitting and an exodus could return the NDP to power.

Voters in British Columbia could be setting themselves up for a future of perpetual, default NDP governments. Much like how Alberta got its accidental NDP government in 2015, BC is about to pave a path for an unpopular NDP government. How? By splitting the votes between the opposition.

BC is often considered an inherently left-wing province, but as the cost of living and a drug epidemic strangle the quality of life, voters are going to give their ruling New Democrats a free pass by accident. The sentiments against the NDP have been on the rise for months, with voters on the left drifting into indifference, and voters on the right choosing a more staunchly conservative political party. After the right-leaning Liberals re-branded to United to avoid a further collapse into oblivion, things have only gotten worse for them.

Not only is the Liberal brand exceedingly tarnished in BC, left-wing ideology is proving to be vastly more destructive than liberals and socialists had expected. The federal Liberals, despite having no affiliation to the former BC Liberals, have gained such a horrific reputation in the province that the name had to go. However, the province's ruling NDP have lost more than 5% of their popular support due to their destructive policies, according to multiple polls.

Horgan's NDP won on low turnout in 2020, with a deliberately early election in the middle of a pandemic.

The catch is, even under Christie Clarke's lack of popularity, the NDP never gained the trust of a majority of BC voters. Horgan actually lost the popular vote in 2017 and was later propped up by the Green Party. In 2020, knowing he still wasn't popular enough to win, he called an early election in the middle of a pandemic to stifle voter turnout. Fast forward to 2024 and the NDP has not gained a single inch of popularity.

Now, voters in BC are facing the same predicament Alberta faced in 2015.

Support for John Rustad's Conservatives has risen steadily over the year, with the party now ahead of United by an average of 7%. Some polls show Rustad ahead by bigger margins. The problem, however, is that it's not enough to beat the NDP. Even if Rustad finishes the next election at 34%, like polls by Mainstreet Research have shown, it wouldn't be enough. There are still a segment of voters clinging to United like how Albertans clung to the Progressive Conservatives.

If BC voters could learn anything from Alberta, it is that vote-splitting leads to disaster—or in BC's case, continued disaster.

If anything, conservative sentiments have strengthened in British Columbia. On a federal level, Conservatives are set to sweep a majority of the province's seats, while Rustad is set to prove his party is more capable than United. In fact, Rustad's success has shown that many voters in BC have abandoned the middle road and are instead turning to more solid conservative principles. For this, the NDP should blame itself.

There is a misconception in Alberta and Saskatchewan that BC is hopelessly left-wing—but that's really not the case. Like in the rest of Canada, sentiments are doing a full 180 degree turn. If any Albertan takes a trip to BC's mainland and interior, they're going to find hordes of like-minded people. Like anywhere else, the big urban areas are infested with left-wing voters and degenerates, while the more conservative voters get pushed out into the rural areas. Big trucks and freedom-loving attitudes populate most of rural BC, just like they populate most of Alberta.

A big disadvantage for BC, though, is the outflow of conservative voters to Alberta. Many of those rural voters from the mainland are packing their things and moving to Alberta, which could severely harm BC as a whole. The last place that can afford to lose conservatives is the mainland, particularly the Okanagan and wine country.

John Rustad is currently losing a lot of his base to Danielle Smith.

Luckily, it's an election year in BC. There needs to be an election in the province by October of this year, meaning there isn't too much time between now and then for even more conservatives to leave. However, conservative and moderate voters in BC are going to need to make a decision. Continuing to support United will be detrimental to the province's future.

Like in Alberta, there are the right-of-centre moderates who fear anything that's too right-wing. They're the normies of the conservative movement. They believe mainstream news, fall for lies and hype, and tend to stick with what they have been told is “normal”. They often hate Donald Trump because the media said he told everyone to inject bleach, and they are programmed to regurgitate and believe left-wing talking points—which they don't realize are designed to support left-wing policies and narratives.

Rustad will have to find a way to appeal to these normies by exhibiting stability and running a scandal-free campaign. He'll have to avoid feeding the media food like Danielle Smith did in Alberta. He'll have to come across as level-headed and wise. Unlike Alberta, BC's normie conservatives aren't as inherently and culturally anti-left, and they will shudder at anything that sounds too Alex Jonesy.

In Alberta, more moderate conservatives are willing to take a chance on more extreme right-wing policies in order to avoid taxes. In BC, they won't do that.

The latest Leger poll shows the NDP at 43%, United at 18%, and Rustad's Conservatives at 26%. Polls from other companies show similar results, with Conservatives ahead of United in all of them. In fact, there isn't one single poll from the past six months that shows United ahead of Conservatives. The last time United was ahead of Conservatives was in October 2023.

According to the newest poll from Mainstreet Research, Rustad's Conservatives are now slightly ahead of the NDP heading into May. However, I wouldn't bet on results from one poll. 

Either way, the choice is clear. There is one party that's winning the war for conservatives in BC. If the last holdouts from United don't switch teams, it is as good as voting for the NDP. The moderates who have watched the NDP legalize hard drugs, stack taxes on the backs of burdened businesses, and exasperate the housing crisis have one chance to make things right. If they take a chance on Rustad and it turns out badly, they can punish him in 2028.

It is only four years, but four more years of destructive NDP policies could make the damage irreversible.