FEBRUARY 1st, 2023 | RYAN TYLER

Justin Trudeau's Career Is Ending

Every major poll indicates the prime minister's career is almost over.

Whether he likes it or not, Justin Trudeau's career as a Canadian politician and prime minister is coming to an end. He might have a job waiting for him at the United Nations, or somewhere in the private sector, but his reign in Ottawa is almost over. When all is said and done, he'll go down in history as one of Canada's most divisive and reviled leaders. Had he been less of a liar, less of a smarmy scoundrel and less of an asshole, he might have been prime minister for another five years. With every day that passes, it's becoming more clear that Justin Trudeau won't be able to repair his relationship with Canadians.

After eight years of non-answers and meaningless word salads in response to his many scandals and wrongdoings, Canadians have had enough. They've had enough of his lectures, his smugness and his entitlement. When he was accused of groping a reporter, he called it a learning opportunity for the rest of us. When he dressed up in blackface, he told us we had a lot more work to do as a country to combat racism. When his cabinet ministers doled out contracts to their friends, he gave pompous apologies and distanced himself from the decision-making process. It wasn't his fault—none of it was his fault.

We have a prime minister who has refused to take accountability for anything that has happened on his watch. The SNC-Lavalin scandal wasn't his fault, the ArriveCan boondoggle wasn't his fault, the Aga Khan scandal wasn't his fault, the WE scandal wasn't his fault, the Ahmed Hussen scandal wasn't his fault, Harjit Sajjan's lies weren't his fault, Blackface wasn't his fault and Ruth Ellen Brosseau's boob ran into his elbow.

Justin Trudeau hasn't done anything wrong, we've just experienced him differently.

Our poor experiences under his leadership have begun to manifest into real-world problems for the flawless boy wonder. Our misconception of him has caused his approval ratings to hit rock bottom and the premier of Quebec to talk trash about him. Our inability to perceive his impeccable leadership style has caused angry mobs to form in every city he visits and to hurl insults and taunts at his cabinet ministers. It turns out, Canadians are just too stupid to have Justin Trudeau as their leader.

Problems in Quebec

In January, Francois Legault took to Twitter to accuse Trudeau of attacking Quebec's democracy by suggesting limitations on the use of the notwithstanding clause. The premier called Trudeau's words a “frontal attack” on Quebec's autonomy as a nation and its ability to protect its rights.

As of December 2022, Legault had an approval rating of 57% in Quebec, meaning his words have weight in the province. Against Trudeau's national approval rating of 43%, Legault's favour is something the prime minister can't afford to lose. Quebec is a province Liberals need to win. Before Legault's comments, Trudeau had an approval rating of 47% in Quebec, making it the most “pro-Trudeau province in Canada”.

Legault's latest comments could be a sign of Trudeau's waning popularity in the province.

Trudeau's hypocrisy on personal rights and freedoms, after his invocation of the Emergencies Act, is rich and likely easily identifiable by most Canadians and Quebeckers. When he suddenly and conveniently becomes a defender of personal and provincial autonomy, it's hard for most Canadians to ignore. Despite Canadians, in fact, being quite docile and impervious to truth, Trudeau's outright hypocrisy is waking them up.

Desperation And Problems With Polling

The Liberal Party's internal polling is clearly showing something dire. Public opinion polls have been consistently showing Trudeau's Liberals sinking below 30%, so it's likely their internal polls are setting off some alarms. Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives are gaining traction among young people and Trudeau's attacks on him have been a tell-tale sign that it's showing up in their own polling.

Last summer, I wrote about how dirty and filthy the next Liberal campaign will be. The word “dangerous” will start becoming a common part of the Liberal lexicon when describing Poilievre, along with words like “reckless” and “harmful”. Their campaign will sink to incredible new lows as Trudeau flails with desperation and they'll attempt to paint Poilievre and Conservatives with every “ism” available in the dictionary. A negative campaign will do more than a positive campaign because it will rile up anger and negative sentiments on the left—which is the only thing left to fuel a Liberal win.

Media will try to heighten the importance of Maxime Bernier and the PPC in an attempt to split the vote, but as polls have shown, Poilievre has been successful at siphoning PPC support and drawing back disaffected Conservative voters. As polls continue to show a widening Conservative lead, Trudeau's friends at Unifor, Bell Media and the CBC will try to spin every Poilievre word and position into a scandal.

The CBC will try to pull the same dishonest and corrupt shenanigans with Poilievre as they did with Danielle Smith in Alberta, when they published an unverifiable and patently false story about the Alberta premier attempting to influence crown prosecutors. Without ever reading or seeing an alleged email from the premier's office to prosecutors, the CBC published a story based on “anonymous” hearsay in an attempt to advance a made-up NDP narrative.

A new Mainstreet Research poll shows Smith's UCP 4% ahead of the NDP, following the province's new affordability handouts. The latest ThinkHQ poll puts the UCP at 48% and the NDP at 45%. Both leads are above each poll's margin of error. As Rachel Notley's NDP begin to flail, the media's efforts will intensify. The same will happen to Pierre Poilievre as Trudeau continues to flail and sink deeper into the abyss of public disapproval.

Trudeau's Odds Are More Slim Than Ever

Justin Trudeau has reached the eight-year threshold that—more often than not—ends political careers in a democracy. Along with that, his approval and polling numbers are in the hole following yet more scandals involving public money. The office of Ahmed Hussen was caught doling out cash to relatives, a contracting company called McKinsey made millions from Liberals, and the ArriveCan boondoggle is a high profile disaster. In all three cases, the Liberals involved doubled down and defended their actions.

Canadians are tired of Liberal Party arrogance and cronyism. More importantly, they're sick of Liberals refusing to apologize, resign, or take accountability. After eight years of bullshit, it's time for change.

Polls show that a majority of Canadians think Canada is worse off and that 51% want Trudeau to step down in 2023. Almost half of Canadians want an election in 2023—something that might not happen due to an agreement between the NDP and Liberal Party. Literally every major poll shows Justin Trudeau on the losing side of history and public approval. It has gotten so bad that even the pro-Liberal pollsters can't hide the numbers anymore.

In comparison to the lead-ups to the 2019 and 2021 elections, the numbers have gotten much worse for Trudeau. At this point, no one can say, “But, Trudeau's numbers were just as bad in the past two elections and he still won.”

They weren't, actually.

Leading up to the 2021 election, Liberals were polling consistently above 30%. During the pre-campaign period, they were in the ballpark of 34% on average. In 2019, Liberals were averaging 33% in the pre-campaign period and 32% leading up to the election. Under O'Toole's horrific leadership, Conservatives lost a lot of ground gained by Andrew Scheer.

In 2023, Liberals are consistently below 30%, according to Nanos, which has rarely shown Liberals below 30%. In the pre-campaign periods before the past two elections, Liberals rarely dropped below 30% in any poll. Dropping below 30% and staying there is a first for Trudeau's Liberals—hence the alarm bells and desperation. To add fuel to the Liberal Party's downward momentum, Poilievre's Conservatives are polling higher than the past two previous party leaders in a pre-campaign period.

The latest Leger poll shows some momentum for Liberals, but Conservatives are matched at 34%. The last Abacus poll showed Conservatives ahead by 4% (35-31). Every Nanos poll since mid-December has shown the Liberals below 30%. A Mainstreet poll from December had the Conservatives at 36% and the Liberals at 31%.

A lot can change between now and the next election. With the help of corporate media, Trudeau could still make a comeback—but it's not overly likely. The sentiments of ordinary Canadians have soured on Trudeau, but that doesn't mean they want a Conservative government. Anything could go wrong within the next few months if Conservatives aren't vigilant, but the numbers look promising for the moment.

In the end, if Trudeau somehow manages to win the next election, he could be prime minister for a total of 15 years.