How Joe Biden Gets Re-Elected

If it happens, you can thank Donald Trump.
Donald Trump has no chance of winning the 2024 presidency. I'm so certain of that, I will retreat into silence and obscurity and never write again if I'm wrong. Every available metric points to Trump's defeat, yet he won't stop. The one thing a Trump candidacy will accomplish is another Joe Biden victory, or the victory of any Democrat who takes Biden's place in the event of his resignation. For Donald Trump, there is not a single road that leads to victory. Well, maybe there is one, but it has a very small likelihood of happening.
Here are the scenarios.

Trump As A Republican (Biden Wins)

Trump has a better than good chance of winning the GOP nomination, but only among a medium to large slate of candidates. Among a small slate, Trump could be defeated and massive losses in the next election could be avoided—but we shouldn't hold our breath. There will be more than a few Republicans arrogant enough to think they can beat him. That will be the great detriment to the GOP leading into 2024.
In a small slate, made up of one no-name, DeSantis and Pence, Trump could be defeated in the GOP primaries. Anything larger than four total candidates sets the GOP up for a repeat of the 2016 primaries that saw Trump win the delegates he needed with less than 40% of the vote. The larger the slate, the bigger Trump's chances of winning.
The ideal match-up would be a clear cut duel between DeSantis and Trump. But we can't count on that happening. If it does—and Trump sees himself losing to DeSantis—he will bring about the second scenario. Trump will bring about the second scenario in any event in which he sees himself losing the Republican primaries.

Trump As An Independent (Biden Wins)

If Trump knows he can't win the primaries, he will jump off the ship and into his own life raft. He will either start his own party, join an existing party, or run as an independent. In such an event, we would see a repeat of 1992, when George Bush lost to Bill Clinton because Ross Perot split the conservative votes.
This kind of presidential race (Biden-Trump-DeSantis) would be worse than if Trump were to win the GOP nomination. A DeSantis GOP would have to work extra hard to defeat two opponents, while Biden's Democrats would sail to a decisive re-election.
The only way for Republicans to win in this scenario would be for a heavy-hitting, high profile independent opponent to split the liberal votes and to level the playing field on both sides. Some have suggested Kanye West could be such a candidate—however, he could act only to bleed more support from Trump's base than from Biden's.
Even a lower to medium profile candidate, similar to Ralph Nader, could bleed enough support from Democrats to open the door ajar for DeSantis.

Two Independents (Biden Loses, Maybe)

If Trump runs outside the GOP, Democrats will need a powerful opponent. This is the only way for Republicans to take the White House. Ralph Nader was a strong candidate prior to 2004, when he ran against Clinton, Dole and Perot in 1996 and against Bush and Gore in 2000, but his lustre has since worn off. There could be, however, other candidates to match his strength in 2024.
Bernie Sanders has a close relationship with Democrats and his fear of Republicans could dissuade him from running as an independent, but never say never. Sanders is one of three independent senators at the moment and he has the pull and popularity to bleed Biden dry in the 2024 general election. In the worst case, he could potentially win the presidency as an independent.
Angus King is another left-leaning independent serving as senator for Maine. He was once the governor of Maine and he caucuses with Democrats.
Howard Stern has hinted at running for president and could act as the left's own version of Trump. He has expressed interest in running as an independent, stating his dissatisfaction with both parties. Stern vowed his intention to run after the Supreme Court overturned Roe-Wade, promising to abolish the Electoral College and reform the Supreme Court.
Andrew Yang would be the most promising and level-headed alternative to Joe Biden in 2024.

Trump's Numbers

Trump's win over Hillary Clinton in 2016 was narrow. He won by a razor thin margin in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, making his win look like a fluke against an equally unpopular Democrat candidate. Had his opponent been more popular and appealing to younger generations, Trump would have lost in 2016.
Hillary was so unpopular, Democrats lost their enthusiasm in some important swing states. Moreover, their cockiness and arrogance led them to believe they were going to beat Donald Trump in a landslide. This diminished any urgency that could have helped Hillary beat Trump where she needed to beat him. Democrats miscalculated Trump's chances and hurt their own. In 2020, they learned their lessons and turned up in loads to vote Trump out. (This is the reality, whether MAGA nation wants to believe it or not.)
In 2016, Trump narrowly beat Hillary in Michigan by only 10,704 votes. In 2012, Obama took Michigan over Romney by 449,313 votes. In Pennsylvania, Trump beat Hillary by only 44,292 votes. Obama beat Romney there by 309,840 votes. Beating a Democrat in either of these states in notable, but Hillary's hubris and Democrats' lack of enthusiasm were two factors that probably won't ever happen again.
Trump was a lesson for Democrats and they have learned from their own mistakes. Now it's the GOP's turn to shift gears and to change their strategy. But, will they? I'm not betting on it.


December 2022


november 2022