JULY 1st, 2023 | RYAN TYLER

Manitoba's COnservatives Should Do This Now

Consider this an open invitation.

Upon analyzing Manitoba's next election, I came to a disheartening conclusion. Despite having a Progressive Conservative government at the moment, Manitoba is an NDP province. Not a single conservative government in the province since 1977 has won without left-wing vote splitting. In more than 12 crucial ridings, the NDP and Liberal votes either outnumber, or match, Progressive Conservative votes. For this reason, every conservative living in and around Winnipeg should escape to Calgary.

Unlike their neighbours in Saskatchewan, Manitoba conservatives are always outnumbered. Even when conservatives win government, a majority of people in most of Manitoba's 57 ridings are either liberal or socialist. In 2007, Saskatchewan defeated the NDP and a majority of the provinces ridings have remained loyal to the Sask Party. In Alberta, the NDP has a ceiling of 38 seats.

In Alberta, the UCP receives a healthy majority of the popular vote. 

With that said, Manitoba conservatives have only one place in Canada that will always be guaranteed to align with their personal and political beliefs. Saskatchewan could go NDP again, but Alberta is likely to remain a safe haven. Our last election showed just how unfriendly the province is to socialists. Both the NDP and corporate media threw the kitchen sink at Danielle Smith, but she won a majority. In terms of her conservative and libertarian beliefs, Smith is one of the most “extreme” premiers to ever win an election in Canada.

Why should Manitoba conservatives move to Calgary and not rural Alberta?

This time around, the NDP made strong in-roads into Calgary. The city needs more conservatives to stop any kind of trend that could be on the verge of forming. Conservatives who have lived in Winnipeg are used to life in a big city and would adapt well to a much cleaner, less crude version of their own city. Calgary is a lot rougher than it was ten years ago, but it's still bigger, better and cleaner than Winnipeg. If conservatives there are looking for an improvement, Calgary is where they need to be.

If conservatives in rural Manitoba are tired of losing, Calgary's suburbs offer a cleaner, brighter future for anyone looking to raise children. Most neighbourhoods in Calgary are filled with green spaces and are only a 30-45 minute drive from the Rocky Mountains. If the mountains get too busy, the areas surrounding Calgary offer more outdoor adventures and getaways than most of Manitoba.

House Prices

Homes in Manitoba are cheaper because no one wants to live there. Winnipeg's average detached house prices range between $405,000 and $415,000. This doesn't make it easy for people from Winnipeg to make the move, since Calgary's average detached house prices are upwards of $600,000 this year. However, Calgary's south end has an average price of $535,000, while the Northeast ranges in the low $400,000s.

The closer you get to Calgary's core, the more expensive prices get.

The value of houses will always continue to appreciate in Alberta as long as conservatives control policy, so it's also a good investment. By paying more for a house in Calgary, you're paying for a higher quality of life, warmer winters and better neighbours who might agree with you on important political issues. Interest rates are making houses more expensive, but there could be some conservatives in Winnipeg willing to invest their savings in a change of scenery. Not everyone can afford to make the move to Calgary, but if they can, they should.

When interest rates come down, houses might become more affordable for those who can't afford them right now. As Justin Trudeau opens the door to a million more immigrants, home-builders may be forced to pick up the pace and radically increase inventories within the next couple of years. If conservatives from Manitoba come with their savings, they could snatch up some prime property.

One way to make up the difference in higher mortgage payments is with Alberta's lower tax rates.

Taxes

Alberta has some of the lowest taxes in Canada. In Manitoba, people earning $32,000 a year pay more than $2,000 in provincial income taxes. In Alberta, they pay only $1,000. For people earning $62,400 in Manitoba, they pay nearly $6,000 in provincial income taxes. In Alberta, people earning the same only pay $4,000.

In Manitoba, people pay 7% more for everything they buy with a provincial sales tax, officially called the “retail sales tax”. In Alberta, there is no provincial sales tax.

For the past year, Alberta's UCP government has suspended the provincial tax on gasoline to combat inflation, while Danielle Smith continues to fight Trudeau on the federal carbon tax. Under the UCP, Albertans will be protected from higher taxes if the party fulfills its promise to require referendums on all future income tax increases. Combined with the lowest provincial corporate tax rate in Canada, these realities make Alberta the most competitive province in the country.

Like-minded Neighbours

For Manitoba conservatives who are tired of being surrounded by lazy socialists, Alberta offers the perfect escape. Suburban Calgary's strong, collectively conservative mindset might be enough for most conservatives in Manitoba to pack their bags and head West.

Please consider this an open invite. Calgary needs you and Alberta is open for your business. I've even coined an endearing nickname for all of you: TobaCons. (maybe someone already coined it?)

Come home to Alberta, TobaCons. We love you! More importantly, we need you and you would fit in well.