November 2nd, 2024 | RYAN TYLER

Trump's Advantage: A Presidential Election Analysis 

The odds of winning the Electoral College are in Trump's favour, but women could change that.

In 2020, everyone knew Donald Trump would lose to Joe Biden. All the polls showed it, so it's baffling to see so many people saying the election was stolen. Being an avid election watcher for most of my adult life, it wasn't out of the ordinary to see people flood the vote to eliminate a polarizing candidate. Like I have said before, the fear and hatred against Trump slightly outpaced his popularity. This time is much different, but still similar—with turnout being the deciding factor. Without turnout, there are no votes.

Early voting and mail-in data in major swing states shows an uptick in Republican turnout. According to NBC News, new voters have broken records. These are voters who have either never voted at all, or who didn't vote in 2020, but maybe voted in 2016. I call these people “part-time voters”. Interestingly enough, when you compare this data to current approval ratings and economic metrics, it fits a pattern that doesn't look good for Kamala Harris.

First, let's look at these new voters and what their implications are.

NBC News reports that female Democrats are dominating the new voter registrations in Pennsylvania, while Republican men dominate in Arizona. According to polls, Pennsylvania is the closest state among the battlegrounds. Despite his blowout in the electoral college, Biden only won the state by about 80,000 votes in 2020. Current polls show a tie.

What could erase the gains made by Democrats among females in Pennsylvania is the gains Republicans have made in the mail-in and early votes—as well as the newly registered men, which are almost to par with newly registered Democrat men. What remains a sign of doom for Democrats in Pennsylvania, despite the media's enthusiasm about the female vote, is the overall uptick in Republican turnout in early voting from 2020, and the evident downtick in Democrat turnout. If any of this carries forward to in-person voting on election day, Kamala Harris will lose Pennsylvania.

In 2020, 64% of mail-in votes in Pennsylvania were from Democrats. In 2024, those numbers are down to 57%, which is a 7% slump. For Republicans, it is 33% in 2024, which is an uptick of almost 10% from 2020. Mathematically, Biden's 2020 lead of 80,000 votes might have already been erased before in-person voting has started.

With that said, no one knows what turnout will look like on election night—and the margins in Pennsylvania could be within a few thousand votes.

Even so, the path to victory in the Electoral College remains in Trump's favour. Many polls and prognosticators have put Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina in Trump's column, which leaves only three states that are true toss-ups: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Nevada remains tight, but some have put it in Trump's column as a likely win—and early voting data there looks stronger than ever for Republicans.

If all of this is true, Kamala Harris needs to win all three toss-up states, while Trump only needs to win one.

If Trump loses Pennsylvania and Michigan, but wins Wisconsin, he will be the next president. If he wins Michigan and loses Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, he wins. If he wins Pennsylvania and loses Michigan and Wisconsin, he wins. If he loses all three, he loses by a narrow margin of 270-268 to Harris in the Electoral College. Despite all of the positive polls and electoral odds leaning in Trump's favour, this scenario still has a high likelihood of playing out.

As the map shows, if polls are true, Donald Trump has a 3-1 chance of winning the electoral college. However, polls in all three toss-up states have been swinging back and forth from Harris to Trump. If they are accurate, this race could really be won or lost by a few thousand votes.

Surprises And Shockers

Election night could still have some surprises in store for everyone. For instance, if women turn out in historic numbers and men stay home on election day, Harris could win by bigger margins than anyone expected. She could win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan by slim margins, but do well in Nevada, or maybe North Carolina, and she could flip the whole race upside down by winning more than 280 electoral votes.

Alternatively, Trump could win in an historic blowout by surpassing all the odds that are already in his favour.

Trump could win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan with all the other battlegrounds—which would put him at 312 in the Electoral College. In an even bigger shocker, he could flip one or two traditionally blue states like Minnesota or Virginia, giving him more than 320. This scenario is the least likely, but polls for Harris in both states have been worse than they were for Biden and Clinton in previous elections.

If we pay closes attention to what line-ups at polling stations look like on election day in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we could get an indication of how it will unfold.

Everyone agrees this race has strong divides by gender. Women are more likely to vote for Harris, while men are more likely to vote for Trump. Although women have dominated early voting, just as they did in 2020, they might not show up for in-person voting as strongly as men. If voter lines are made up of mostly men, we might be able to surmise it would be good for Trump's odds. Vice versa, seeing a lot of women might be a good sign for Harris.

In the end, it will be turnout that determines the winner. Right now, more Americans identify as Republicans, more Americans are sad about their future, and early voting and mail data suggest Republicans are more enthused and fired up than they were four years ago. However, this could all be a misleading indicator of something different happening under the surface. Also, strong Republican numbers could strike fear into Democrats at the last minute. On election night, fear and loathing could be the winners like they were in 2020—but I'm cautiously optimistic.