September 1st, 2024 | Thomas Carter

If Trump Can Flip This STate, He Wins

A single state will guarantee Trump's victory in the Electoral College.

Donald Trump's path to victory has narrowed dramatically, if opinion polls are to be believed. The worst mistake Republicans can make now is to assume these polls are wrong. If we take them as accurate, Trump will need to buffer his path to victory by flipping at least one blue state, making a loss in Pennsylvania less consequential in his math. At the moment, he is losing Michigan and Wisconsin, but Virginia could be the state that keeps his mathematical path on the winning side in the Electoral College.

A Republican has not won Virginia since 2004, but the state has always been close and has gone to Republicans in Congress and in state legislatures on multiple occasions since the end of the Bush Administration. In 2016, Trump lost Virginia by less than 5%. According to the latest RCP Average, Trump is trailing Harris by only 4%.

Trump has a real chance to flip Virginia with a strong ground game and more rallies. To flip his odds, Trump's campaign will need to throw everything at Virginia. They will need more ads, more billboards, more big rallies, and more troops on the ground in urban areas like Richmond and Virginia Beach. His campaign currently has the money and Trump has indicated his desire to flip blue states in his strategy.

No other blue state would be easier to flip than Virginia.

In the RCP Average, Trump is tied in Pennsylvania. If he loses Pennsylvania, he will need Virginia to win the presidency. Even without Arizona, Michigan, or Wisconsin, Trump would shock the system by flipping Virginia and winning a second term. The math would put him at an even 270 votes if he flips Nevada and Georgia and keeps all of his states from 2020. At the moment, Trump is ahead of Harris by 1% in Nevada and Georgia. With new state measures in place that more strongly regulate mail-in voting, Georgia should be easier for Trump to win.

If Trump can't win Nevada, he will need Arizona—where he is currently trailing Harris by a very small and winnable margin.

If Trump wins Virginia, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, he will be the next president with 281 electoral votes. Without Nevada and only with Virginia, Georgia and Arizona, Trump would take 275 electoral college votes. Neither of these scenarios include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan.

Other Crucial States

According to some new polls, Trump is losing ground in North Carolina. If this is accurate, he will need to do everything he can to keep this state in his column. Losing North Carolina will significantly reduce his chances of beating Harris.

Trump lost Georgia to Biden in 2020, but that can't happen again in 2024. Polls show Trump with a narrow lead over Harris in Georgia, but that could change at any moment. States like Georgia and North Carolina are crucial in Trump's electoral map. If he loses either state, he won't be able to win the White House. Both states have 16 electoral college votes. If Trump loses one of them, he won't win without Pennsylvania.

The Six Winning States

Trump will need to throw everything at Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Virginia. If he allocates his resources accordingly to focus on these six states, he will win the presidency and beat Kamala Harris. Of course, he won't be able to neglect other crucial states like Wisconsin, Florida, and Ohio.

If I could advise Trump and his campaign directly, I would tell them to forget about Michigan. I would tell them to stop wasting their money there and to shift their focus to Virginia and Pennsylvania. Although I don't believe Minnesota is winnable for Trump, throwing some more money at the state could increase his odds.

Having a big rally at Madison Square Gardens, like Trump has suggested, would be a good look. Even though he can't win New York, the gravitas and exposure of such an event would shake the ground underneath Democrats. I don't think this event has a chance of happening, but if it did it would be a winner.

A few big rallies in New Mexico would be wise as well.

Focusing heavily on the six states above and throwing a little extra money at Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Jersey and New Mexico would be Trump's best strategy. If he wins all six of those states while keeping his 2020 wins, Trump would sail to victory with 300 electoral college votes. If he loses Virginia, but keeps five, he would win with 287 electoral votes. If he loses both Virginia and Arizona, he would still win with 276 votes.

Through an unlikely miracle, if Trump flipped Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico and Virginia—while keeping his 2020 wins and the other five golden states—he would win 324 electoral college votes without Michigan or Wisconsin. This is highly unlikely, but shows how a successful effort to flip weaker Democrat states could change the map.

To summarize, this is what Trump needs win:

The Six Top-Priority States

Virginia

Georgia

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Nevada

Arizona

Three States To Pamper

Ohio (crucial)

Wisconsin

Florida (crucial)

Three High-Value Democrat Targets

Minnesota

New Mexico

New Jersey

Here is the map: