March 1st, 2026 | Ryan Tyler

There Is A Single Explanation For Gold PrIces

Economists, experts, and bankers pin the abnormal and historic bull market in gold and silver to uncertainty. They're partially right, but they always fail to explain where that so-called uncertainty is coming from. They blame multiple factors, but at the core of it there is only one, single reason for the current gold prices.

The most common argument on the right-leaning side of the fence is the collapse of the US dollar and its slow decline. However, this has been happening for decades and is nothing new. Others will say it's rising geo-political tensions, AI hysteria, or all of the above. Many will point to Donald Trump—and those guys are right. The answer is not as complex as everyone thinks. There is, actually, only one reason for the current bull market.

The single reason that simply explains gold: Trump Derangement Syndrome.

Hysterical takes about Trump aren't confined to dinner tables in liberal households, or low testosterone editorial rooms. This hysteria extends to world powers, governments, hedge funds, and banks. On Wall Street, in national capitals and boardrooms, people started panicking about Donald Trump before he was even elected. As it became more clear that he would win a second term, they started hedging and buying up gold.

The beginning of gold's historic run began in March of 2024. It was then that price finally broke $2200. From there, it never stopped.

March 2024

So, what happened in March of 2024?

The Supreme Court blocked efforts to keep Trump off state ballots in the first week of the month; the Super Tuesday primaries solidified Trump's nomination in the Republican Party; Nikki Haley dropped out; Biden's cognitive health was plaguing Democrats; the prospect of Kamala Harris began dampening Democratic hopes. By the end of March, the probabilities of Trump winning the presidency shot through the roof.

In July of 2024, Trump literally dodged a bullet in Pennsylvania. A few days later, gold broke a key resistance level at around $2450. It pulled back a bit, then the bull market continued. By mid August, gold was above $2500.

If you're a hedge fund manager with TDS, you started panicking like a girl in March of 2024. You probably started directing your brokers and traders to buy gold and defensive stocks. If you were a European, African, South American or Asian banker or leader, you directed your people to stockpile physical gold. In fact, this is exactly what started happening and exactly why gold prices began to break records.

Small minnows in the market don't move prices like that. Whales and governments do.

There you have it. The historic prices in gold can precisely be traced back to when the probability of another Trump presidency became high. From there, it has been a continued and sustained bout of global TDS. Banks, governments, and hedge funds who fell for all the hysteria and prospective horrors of a Trump presidency began buying what they have always bought during moments of panic and fear: gold.

But, what about Iran? Conflict with Iran has been on the table since the Bush era. That, too, is nothing new.

It was Bush who set up the chessboard for future presidents by invading Iran's neighbours to build military bases in a cordon around the country. Obama helped by destabilizing Syria and overthrowing Libya to make them more accommodating to US forces. None of these things have ever caused massive and unhinged gold rallies like this.

Of course, with Trump Derangement comes uncertainty. Those afflicted with the syndrome tend to panic over nothing, boil with hatred and disgust, believe everything CNN tells them, and resort to old Boomer tactics—one of which is relying on precious metals to protect their investments.

As with any theory, this one will need proof. This can be done by providing a prediction and then having that prediction come true. So, if gold prices are tied solely to TDS, we should see prices soften near the end of Trump's term, or even after the upcoming mid-term elections—if Republicans take a brutal beating and lose control of Congress. After, or shortly before the 2028 presidential election, gold prices should enter a bear market. In the absolute worst case, or following a Trump impeachment and removal, gold prices could see a violent correction.

Let's see what happens.