July 1st, 2024 | RYAN TYLER

Scott Moe Will Win

Polls show Carla Beck's NDP nowhere near a majority.

After decades of irrelevancy, the Sask NDP still haven't gained any traction. It's difficult to think voters would really want a change after the strong economic management of Scott Moe and his Sask Party—but for a second there, it looked like the NDP had a chance. Under Carla Beck, it's becoming increasingly evident that Scott Moe is going to win another majority this fall and the NDP are going to barely scrape by.

It takes 31 seats to win a majority, but the NDP aren't even close. They may have gained in popular support, but the math doesn't add up. The NDP will probably pick up some extra seats in Regina and Saskatoon, but it won't be enough to beat Scott Moe. Things could change by October, but the NDP's trend looks as stagnant as the Saskatchewan economy was under the party's rule.

There are five ridings from 2020 that were nail-biters and could go to the NDP in this round. Most of the others will likely stay the same, minus a big move in momentum for the party. They already took one of those five seats in 2020, so that leaves them with four. I'm putting these four in the 'likely NDP' category.

If the NDP only picks up these four seats, it puts them at 17 and the Sask Party at 44.

The real party-poopers for the Sask Party are opponents like Saskatchewan United and the Buffalo Party, which aren't going to win any seats, but could dent Sask Party numbers enough to give the NDP an advantage in close ridings.

Regina CoronationPark was recently won by the NDP in a 2023 by-election after being won by the Sask Party in 2020. This seat will likely go to the NDP in 2024 and is one of the four mentioned above. Another one of the four, Saskatoon Riverside, is most definitely going to the NDP as well, along with Regina Pasqua and Regina University. These are the seats the NDP will likely win in 2024, which puts them to 17.

Regina University was taken from the Sask Party in 2020 and does not add an extra seat for the NDP in 2024.

Now, let's get into the seats the NDP could win to put themselves further ahead.

The Sask Party won Prince Albert Northcote by only 195 votes in 2020, which isn't enough to beat a marginally significant increase for the NDP—which polls show is real. Regina Walsh Acres could be snatched by the NDP in 2024 as well, but with a tighter margin, as the NDP snatched it up in a 2023 by-election by about 500 votes following the death of an MLA. Saskatoon Westview could also be at risk, despite being a generally safe seat for the Sask Party.

These are the only seats I would put in the 'likely NDP' category. In total, they put the NDP at 20 seats and the Sask Party at 41. There are some other seats that could potentially be at risk for the Sask Party under an NDP surge—or a surge by parties like Saskatchewan United.

Prince Albert Carlton was won by the Sask Party in 2020, but by only 1,000 votes or so. A statistically significant jump in NDP support could narrow that margin, or put the NDP ahead by a hair. Moose Jaw Makamow was won by under 900 votes and could flip NDP, despite the NDP losing some support in 2020. Aside from these two extra ridings and the ones mentioned earlier, I don't see the NDP capable of winning anywhere else in Saskatchewan.

The maximum seats the NDP can win without pulling ahead of the Sask Party in overall popular support is 22. That would knock Scott Moe and his party down to 39 seats, which is 8 more than a simple majority.

Had an election been held in 2022 or 2023, I'm confident it would have turned out differently. Under massive inflation, mandates, and rising unemployment, Scott Moe became temporarily unpopular. However, his steady-handed leadership navigated the province out of stormy waters and back into calm seas. Things aren't perfect, but minus a recession or massive scandal, Scott Moe appears poised to win another term as Premier.

An NDP majority is never out of the realm of possibility in Saskatchewan. If anyone in the province thinks it is, they need to get their heads checked. Saskatchewan is the home of socialism. Although it's not a natural NDP province anymore, like how Manitoba is, New Democrats will make a comeback when the Sask Party fails. Anything from a scandal to an economic downturn could return Saskatchewan to the NDP.

As of now, Carla Beck is too far behind to win a majority—but that could change on a whim. Stay tuned.