December 1st, 2025 | Ryan Tyler

Mark Carney Will Take The Fall, Conservatives Will Rise Again

Things need to get much worse before prosperity can become possible again.

Canada's economy has been destined to crash. The problems ailing the economy can't really be fixed without some pain along the way, so Conservatives should consider themselves lucky that it won't be them taking the fall for what's coming. Had we not killed our own energy sector, things may have been different, but the road out of this mess is paved with austerity, more debt, and some major economic declines. Until all of that happens, recovery isn't on the table. At the moment, it looks like Liberals and Mark Carney will be at the helm of the impending hardships—which have already started.

Pierre Poilievre should consider his election loss a blessing in disguise. 

Had Conservatives beat Carney and formed government, the inevitable economic collapse nipping at Canada's heels would have landed on them. We have been in a real estate bubble for more than a decade, while wages have remained flat. Now that immigration is being sorted out, we're seeing the effects rapidly unfold: unemployment is stuck, home prices are collapsing, and GDP is about to enter negative territory. The band-aid used to avoid a full scale recession has been ripped off. Immigration is no longer a solution.

Canada has been in a productivity crisis for years, but GDP has been propped up by real estate. Now that real estate is crashing in every major city, the chickens are coming home to roost.

All of this was destined to happen, and had Conservatives won a majority, it would all be on them. Instead, it's all going to land squarely on Mark Carney. An 8% unemployment rate is on the way, real estate bankruptcies are already happening, and excess government spending is going to create a crisis of its own. Over the next two years, crises are going to compound and Liberals are going to see their approval ratings plummet. It's important now for Canadians not to be fooled by the small and temporary bumps in economic positivity along the way. Every downtrend has pullbacks to the upside.

By 2027, Canadians will be ready to install a Conservative government and there won't be any renowned central bankers left to save the Liberal Party.

Over the next year, Carney is going to get backed into a corner. He'll be damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. The choices that will be laid out in front of the Liberal government will all lead to declines in popularity and public trust. If they increase spending, Canada's credit rating will take a hit and make future borrowing more difficult. That will create economic consequences that will leave Canadians reeling. If they make drastic cuts and implement real austerity, public services will decline and Canadian voters will lash out.

Let's not forget about public sector unions and how layoffs and austerity will influence their decisions.

It won't matter what Mark Carney does, his popularity will decline. Had Pierre Poilievre been in charge, the same would be true for him. Had Conservatives won, they probably would have lasted one term before feeling the wrath of an angry electorate. All of this was going to happen no matter who formed government, so Conservatives should be relieved the history books won't blame them for what is coming.

In a couple of years, the NDP will be back in favour with unions and the woke mobs. Mark Carney will be considered too conservative by left-wing liberals, and too liberal by grassroots conservatives. His economic record will be plagued by joblessness, a recession, and an endless barrage of bad news. Even if his policies fix the mess (which they very well might), it will be too late. Voters will choose a Conservative government—and that government will reap the benefits from whatever Liberals do to fix the economic problems that are coming.

Any solutions will take years and a lot of time to manifest. Time is something Mark Carney won't have.

There is also a good possibility that Carney's solutions will make things worse. If he follows genuinely misguided economic philosophies, he could cause more damage. If that happens, he won't have any chances to redeem himself and a new Conservative government will have even more work to do. If Carney acts on the principles he expressed in his book, Canadians might be in for a rough ride.

Regardless of how it all unfolds in the next two years, the next government of Canada will be a Conservative government.

On the electoral landscape, it will start to play out in very familiar ways. The NDP will gain momentum, just like they did in 2011. Liberals will be viewed as too much of something. Whether it's too left or too right, all sides of the electorate will be dissatisfied with the Liberal Party and will turn to alternatives. What might look different is Conservative numbers.

With a significantly diminished NDP, the Conservative Party still did remarkably well in 2025. This could have been foreshadowing for a deeper, more sustained cultural shift happening across Canada. Of course, shifts like this rarely happen overnight. This is something slow and sustained—something that is growing. Even in the United States, the shift that led to Trump's victory began happening before 2012.

What has changed is the Conservative Party's appeal among young people, blue collar workers, and unions. Much of it has to do with the overall economic picture, but Poilievre put a lot of noticeable effort into appealing to blue collar workers and unions in the 2025 campaign. If he, or another leader does the same again, there's no telling how popular the Conservatives will be in the next election.

If Conservatives pull in 41% again, they will win a strong, stable majority government. By then, Carney's support will have collapsed and the Liberal Party's share of the radical left will have drifted back to the NDP.

For those who feel defeated by Carney's win and another Liberal government, take solace in knowing that it was for the best. Had Conservatives won, they wouldn't have lasted longer than a single term. Had it been Poilievre who failed like Carney is about to fail, we could have ended up with something far worse in four years. With Conservatives no longer in a position to be trusted, and Liberals still on the outs, Canadians could have ended up accidentally electing a radical NDP government—like how Alberta did in 2015.

The truth is, Conservatives needed to lose the last election.

Hard times are coming and there is no way to stop it. Electing Poilievre to take the fall would have been detrimental for all conservatives across Canada. Much of what is about to happen was going to happen, no matter the government in charge. The solutions to these hardships are all unpopular and politically destructive. Once Carney fails and Conservatives sail into office, they can work to rebuild Canada in the ways it should have been rebuilt decades ago. By then, more Canadians will be open to their vision of prosperity and economic power.