I'm not always
confident in my predictions, but I am on this one. The next leader of
the federal Liberals will be Mark Carney. Therefore, he will be the
next prime minister until the election is finally called. With this
comes some serious problems for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative
Party.
Right now, as they
often are, Conservatives are smug and complacent. They're sitting
there watching polls explode in favour of Poilievre, but missing the
bigger picture that comes with a new Liberal leader with such an
impressive resume.
I can hear some of you
now. “But, being a central banker makes Carney even worse. No one
will vote for him!”
Wrong. If there is
anyone who can impress Canadians, it's a milquetoast Liberal who has
been the central banker for both Canada and the UK. It's a
sophisticated looking older guy, white, with a CV filled with
impressive international roles. To add icing to the cake, he has zero
baggage and hasn't held any cabinet positions in Trudeau's damaged and disgraced government.
Mark Carney is an
outsider with a work history unlike anyone else in Canadian politics.
Pierre Poilievre is a
legit career politician. He has no experience in deep financial
matters and is not a trained economist like his predecessor, Stephen
Harper. At a time when inflation and costs of living are running
rampant and destroying lives, Canadians are more likely to turn to
someone like Mark Carney. On issues related to the economy and Trump,
they are more likely to gravitate to a guy with more authority. A guy
who has no history in the Liberal government, other than his more
recent role as an economic advisor, and who has an extensive history
managing monetary policy.
This is the one and
only warning I am going to publish for Conservatives.
If Mark Carney wins the
Liberal leadership, the chances of Pierre Poilievre becoming the next
prime minister will become slimmer than they ever have been. I'm not
saying losing is inevitable, I'm just saying that Conservatives will
need to change their tactics, up their game, and avoid making silly
mistakes—because a Carney leadership won't be anything like a
Freeland leadership.
If the next election
was a video game, Mark Carney leading the Liberal Party has the
highest difficulty setting for Conservatives.
At first, I thought it
would be stupid for Carney to enter the race. If you believe the
polls, Liberals are so deep in the hole it seems impossible for them
to climb out. I pictured him giving Conservatives four years to run
things, then entering when Poilievre becomes inevitably less popular.
But, then I really thought about it. If Justin Trudeau is the real
problem, Mark Carney could start with a clean slate. Even by
elevating the party back into the 30% range, he could be viewed as a
success. This means, Liberals are so deep in the hole that the bar to achieve “success” is very low.
Even if Mark Carney
loses to Poilievre, he could come closer to trimming Conservatives to
a minority than anyone in Trudeau's cabinet. Even if Mark Carney
loses with 30% under a Conservative majority, it would be considered
a healthy finish and Carney would be able to stay on as leader for
the next election. After four, or eight years, Carney could cement
himself as a strong opposition leader and eventual prime minister.
If you take the time to
think about it, the odds are more in Mark Carney's favour now than
they would be in four years.
Now, I'm going to lay out exactly how I think everything will go.
Liberal Leadership
Carney will go on to
win the Liberal leadership. The slate will start at a decent size,
but will narrow down as candidates drop out. Liberals will be left
with two front-runners: probably Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney. If
Freeland declares she is not running, or drops out, the path for
Carney to win will be almost uncontested.
Even so, Carney will
win the most impressive endorsements and eventually be propelled into
the leadership, beating the other front-runner(s) by a fair margin.
He will have gained a larger groundswell of high profile support than
any other candidate by the time all is said and done.
The Writ And Left-Wing
Fear
Both the NDP and Bloc
fear a Conservative majority. As polls currently show, a possible
super-majority could be on the horizon. Not long after Carney wins
leadership, polls will show much of the same. It will take him time
to gain traction. Therefore, it is possible that the NDP and Bloc
could attempt to delay a federal election until fall, deliberately
seeking to give Carney time to blunt the Conservative lead.
If the writ drops in
March or April, Carney will have a bit less time, but will still gain
considerable traction as campaigning begins. We also can't disregard
the role legacy media and the CBC will have in elevating him. However, the sooner an election happens, the better it is for Conservatives.
The Federal Campaign
The leader debates will
be the most pivotal moments of the federal election campaign. It will
be Mark Carney's only real chance to contrast himself against
Poilievre face-to-face. Just how Canadians like it, Carney will present
himself as level-headed, smart, and boring. Against Poilievre's
visibly angry and often smarmy demeanour, Carney will come off
as exactly the “normal” and uncontroversial kind of leader
Canadians want.
The legacy media will
help Liberals attack Poilievre and elevate Carney.
Liberals will go hard
at Poilievre, accusing him of being a career politician and attacking
his history in Harper's government. They will put the spotlight on
all the positions he has held in government, while pumping Carney as
an outsider who has managed monetary policy in Canada and the UK.
They will make voters ask the legitimate question about what Pierre
Poilievre has accomplished during his 20-year career in government
and how any of it has made their lives better.
In many ways, Carney
will flip the script on usual Conservative talking points. After all,
he will represent many key things small C voters have wanted. He is
an outsider, comes from the private sector, and has an extensive
history managing economies. For moderate small L voters, he has a
strong record on pushing environmental policies. As a careful
candidate, Carney could pull back the moderates who drifted to
Conservatives during Trudeau.
Carney's strategy will
focus on bringing Liberals back to the centre on some social and
economic policies, while attacking Poilievre as an inexperienced,
whiny loser. Sadly, it will work—because he is the only Liberal who
could pull it off.
As the campaign unfolds
and election night nears, Conservatives will see their lead narrow
significantly. If they aren't careful, Carney will overtake them and
erase it all.
Be Vigilant
The last thing
Conservatives can be now is complacent and cocky. Against Mark
Carney, their odds will be significantly diminished. Despite what he
have been seeing, Canada is still Canada. A majority of Canadians
would still vote Liberal in some circumstances, and most voters still
drift to the left on most economic and social policies.
The state of the
economy has made voters bitter, but someone who appears to have a
level-headed, centrist philosophy could calm them down. This is
something Conservatives and small Cs need to be cognizant of.
Poilievre's current demeanour and style fit the collective mindset of
the country, but they might not work against Carney during an
election campaign.
It pains me to say
this, but I think much of Poilievre's appeal is stemming from the
state of the economy, hatred for Trudeau, and the variables that are
causing hardships for Canadians. In some ways, Canadians don't really
have anyone else to turn to. They don't have anyone else they can
trust to turn things around—but under Mark Carney, that will all
change.
I have been a supporter
of Pierre Poilievre since 2019 and have eagerly awaited the day he
would become Conservative leader. Had he run in 2020-21, he may have
beaten Trudeau, but 2025 is a different time and my gut tells me we
are heading for a big letdown. As much as it seems the tides have
turned in our favour, we should never assume the next election is
ours to win.
