When Pierre Poilievre
takes over Trudeau's office next year, he will be faced with a Senate
that is made up of ideological progressives. This reality will
set the stage for an ideological civil war within Canada's top
chambers of government. If the Conservatives choose to play checkers
instead of chess, they will be the most ineffective Conservative
government in history.
Today, more than 70 of
the sitting senators have been appointed by the advice of Trudeau.
Upon publishing this, there are 10 vacancies which will likely be
filled before the next federal election. Of the 43 members in the
“Independent Senators Group”, more than half are proven
ideological progressives. In total, more than half of the 105 Senate
seats are occupied by people who have supported the Liberal Party's
agenda.
When Poilievre's
majority tries to repeal the carbon tax, chances are high that the
progressive Senate will block it from royal assent. Or, they'll amend
it to the point of absurdity. When Conservatives try to defund or
privatize the CBC, the ideological Senate will block it and accuse
Poilievre of trying to dismantle Canada's cultural heritage. The
progressives in Senate will view themselves as saviours and heroes
against a Conservative super-majority in the House Of Commons. This
would trigger a very public war between the two houses of government.
A progressive majority
in the Senate will upend and delay the work of a Conservative
majority in the House Of Commons. If they succeed long enough, it
will make the Poilievre government look weak, ineffective, and
useless. This, of course, won't be allowed to happen—not without a
fight.
We all know Poilievre
is outspoken and unafraid to start a fight. After, maybe, the very
first attempt by the Senate to block a major Conservative bill,
Poilievre will pull out the arsenal and declare war. If he's smart,
he'll let it happen a second time before going nuclear. If he's uber
smart, his party will put together an omnibus bill filled with tax
cuts, housing projects, major reforms, and things to make Canadians
happy—knowing full well the Senate will block it because of one or
two big things they don't like.
When the Senate blocks
it, he can publicly accuse them of standing against Canadians.
The Senate, being the
Liberal Party's last bastion of influence, will run public campaigns
against Conservatives, calling their efforts an affront to the
environment, Canadian culture, women's rights, and everything else,
while pumping up the Senate as Canada's only remaining institution to
stand guard against white supremacy, homophobia, transphobia,
taxphobia, Nazism, arachnophobia, bibliophobia, cherophobia,
chronophobia, pedophobia—you name it.
Conservatives in the
House Of Commons will call the Senate an anti-democratic institution
that is actively working against what Canadians voted for.
The ideological and
partisan warfare will be fun to watch, but it will consume too much
time and soak up most of the CPC's resources and capital. If
Conservatives don't play their cards right, they'll fall into all the
traps and let the Liberal Senate dictate the destiny of their
government. After four years of stalemate and bickering, Canadians
will get annoyed.
Unless Conservatives
nip this looming problem in the bud as soon as possible, they are
setting themselves up to be lame ducks.
They need to restart
Harper's promise to reform the Senate and make it a part of their
campaign going into the next election. By promising to do everything
they can to reform the Senate, they will be setting up the
expectation for Canadians. The whole point would be to
keep the Senate's undemocratic nature in people's minds leading up to
a Conservative majority in the House Of Commons.
When the Senate makes
its first move to block Conservative legislation, Canadians will
remember that it is Trudeau's Senate—appointed by him, not elected
by the people.
This strategy loads
Poilievre's guns before he wins a majority. Senate reform doesn't
need to take centre stage in a Conservative campaign, it just needs
to be in the books. It needs to be mentioned regularly enough to
remind Canadians that it is an undemocratic institution.
Conservatives need to promise a bill to democratize the Senate within
the first 180 days of their mandate. Regardless of how useless such a
bill would be, it's important to send something like this for the
Senate to reject immediately.
If the Senate somehow
approves a bill to explore democratic reforms, all the better. Either
scenario is a win for the Conservative government.
