June 1st, 2025 | DEVON KASH

Canada Can Afford To Freeze All Immigration

Catastrophic population declines are exaggerated. 

Some believe Canada stands at a demographic crossroads. With a fertility rate of 1.26 children per woman as of 2023, well below the replacement level of 2.1, and an aging population, concerns about population decline and economic stagnation have been the centre of debates. Immigration has traditionally been a key driver of Canada's population growth, with immigrants accounting for two-thirds of the increase between 2011 and 2016. However, what if Canada froze all immigration immediately, starting right now?

In 2025, Canada's population is estimated at approximately 41.5 million. With a birth rate of 9.94 births per 1,000 people and a death rate of 8.07 deaths per 1,000 people, the natural increase is modest. Without immigration, this natural increase would gradually diminish due to the low fertility rate and an aging population. However, as we will explore later, aging may also become a thing of the past by 2030, or by 2050 at the latest.

Assuming the fertility rate remains at 1.26 and life expectancy continues to rise, the population would peak around 2040 and then begin a slow decline. By 2075, projections suggest the population could decrease to approximately 35 million, a reduction of about 15% over 50 years. This decline is gradual, allowing ample time for policy adjustments and technological adaptations.

A declining population often raises concerns about economic contraction, labour shortages, and increased pressure on social support systems. However, it's essential to consider that economic growth is not solely dependent on population growth. Productivity gains can offset the effects of a shrinking workforce.

Historically, countries have experienced economic growth despite declining populations by leveraging technological advancements and increasing labour productivity. For instance, Japan has maintained a strong economy, despite a declining population, by investing heavily in automation and robotics. Similarly, Canada can harness emerging technologies to sustain economic growth.

Artificial intelligence presents a transformative opportunity to address potential labour shortages that can result from a declining population. AI can enhance productivity across various sectors, automate routine tasks, and enable the workforce to focus on higher-value activities. According to the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, AI offers a critical opportunity to boost output and stimulate innovation. The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that automation could boost global productivity by 0.5% to 3.4% annually, with generative AI contributing 0.1% to 0.6% of that growth. In Canada, AI adoption in sectors like healthcare, manufacturing, and finance can significantly enhance efficiency and compensate for labour shortages.

AI can support the aging population by providing assistive technologies, improving healthcare delivery, and enabling independent living for seniors. This not only improves quality of life but also reduces the burden on healthcare systems. All of this may be possible before science and AI solve the problem of aging.

Freezing all immigration to Canada would lead to a gradual population decline, but not a catastrophic one. With strategic investments in AI and a focus on enhancing productivity, Canada can navigate the challenges of a shrinking population. By embracing technological advancements and implementing supportive policies, the nation can maintain economic stability and continue to thrive in the coming decades.

Recent advancements in longevity science suggest that by 2050, humans may significantly slow or even halt the aging process, leading to much lower death rates. Futurist Ray Kurzweil predicts that humans could achieve immortality by 2030, thanks to rapid advancements in technology such as genetic engineering and nanotechnology. He envisions nanobots being integral to this transformation, potentially repairing cells and combating diseases from within the body. This concept, known as "longevity escape velocity," implies that medical advances could extend life expectancy faster than time passes, effectively outpacing aging.

With the prospect of significantly extended lifespans and the integration of AI into various sectors, Canada may no longer need immigration to sustain its population. As people live longer and remain healthier, the workforce could include older individuals contributing meaningfully to the economy. Simultaneously, AI technologies can enhance productivity and compensate for labour shortages. A report by Microsoft and Accenture highlights that generative AI could add up to $180 billion annually to the Canadian economy by 2030, primarily through productivity gains. This synergy between increased human longevity and AI-driven efficiency could enable Canada to maintain a stable population and robust economy without relying on immigration at all.

Halting immigration in Canada could foster a renewed sense of national identity and social cohesion. Over the years, the multiculturalist model has faced scrutiny, with some Canadians questioning its efficacy in promoting integration. A study by the Canadian Citizenship Institute revealed that 58% of surveyed Canadians are concerned that high levels of immigration might dilute a common Canadian spirit essential for national unity. By focusing on natural population growth and shared cultural values, Canada could strengthen its national identity and promote deeper social integration.

Reducing immigration could also alleviate pressures on housing, healthcare, and infrastructure. As our disgraced former Prime Minister acknowledged, the balance between post-pandemic labour needs and population growth have been miscalculated, spurring the Liberal Party's plans to reduce the number of new permanent residents from 485,000 in 2024 to 365,000 by 2027. This move aims to ease economic and infrastructure pressures, allowing for better allocation of resources to existing residents.

A pause in immigration could encourage investment in automation and AI to address labour shortages. AI offers a critical opportunity to boost output per worker and stimulate innovation. By focusing on technological advancements and up-skilling the existing workforce, Canada can maintain economic stability and reduce reliance on immigration all together.

Implementing a complete freeze on immigration, rather than merely reducing it, would provide Canada with a definitive opportunity to re-calibrate its demographic and economic strategies. While recent reductions in immigration targets aim to address immediate concerns such as housing shortages and strained public services, they may not sufficiently alleviate the systemic pressures caused by rapid population growth. A full moratorium would allow for more comprehensive planning and investment in infrastructure, healthcare, and education systems to better serve the existing population. This approach could also facilitate a more thorough integration of technological advancements, such as artificial intelligence, to enhance productivity and compensate for potential labour shortages. Moreover, with emerging scientific research suggesting the possibility of significantly extended human lifespans by 2050, a stabilized population could maintain economic vitality without relying on continuous immigration. Thus, a complete halt to immigration could enable Canada to build a sustainable future that prioritizes social cohesion, lower crime, and less poverty.