January 4th, 2026 | Grant Johnson

Canada In 2026: Debt, Low GDP, High Unemployment

If you have a job, hang on to it.

If you read or listen to the mainstream media, you’ll be deliberately misinformed. The gap between fantasy and reality is so wide in Canada that it’s hard to believe that our NPC nation keeps holding on to its collective delusions. I guess that’s why people (especially under the age of 40) are increasingly curating their own media ecosystems. Heck, it’s why you’re at PostCanadian!

Here are some contrary insights and predictions from your favourite armchair expert. 

Canada’s GDP

Back in January of 2025 the Bank of Canada predicted 2025 would see 1.8% GDP growth for the Canadian economy. Mainstream media outlets breathlessly repeated this claim as though it was matter of fact.

They were so wrong. I’m writing this on December 22nd, 2025, so the final two months of GDP data haven’t been released yet, but up to October of 2025, our GDP stands at a growth rate for the year of about 0.2%. It won’t surprise me if we find out in February of 2026 that 2025 actually experienced negative GDP growth.

And why wouldn’t we? The U.S. has ended free trade with us and we’ve been self-sabotaging for ten years with Woke progressivism. People voted for Carney with a completely misplaced notion of patriotism and saviour worship…going all in on “Elbows Up!” nonsense. 

I knew this would be bad, but the mainstream media has such a grip on boomers and libtards alike that using tricks like extrapolating a single positive month of decent growth into a year-long projection is viewed as truthful.

Expect more of the same in 2026.

The seeds that have been planted are going to begin to sprout throughout the next year. Everything against us in 2025 is still here in 2026. More companies will slow down or shut down or move, and most of this will take place quietly while the mainstream media shouts about the opposite happening. For every company that makes some splashy announcement about investing a hundred million in Canada for AI or some shit, there will be factories closing and headquarters moving and layoffs galore.

2026 GDP will likely have basically no real growth once again. I predict between 0 and 0.5% for 2026.

Canada’s Employment

If you have a job you should probably keep it. Be prepared for a layoff and keep your resume sharp and ready. Whether you do a good job or not may not matter when huge macroeconomic effects are taking place.

I expect Ontario to especially feel the pinch of unemployment as more American businesses just move everything back home to the U.S. and stop investing in the province altogether. Ontario is basically low-budget Detroit, and with Trump in office, America will just choose real Detroit. 

A declining economy and a lack of investment is bound to lead to job losses…in the private sector. In the public sector, however, you’re golden. Also, any government-related job is a necessity. If you’re working for the water company or in a hospital or something, it’ll probably just be another year. For everyone else, the pinch of economic decline will put them at risk. 

The one wild card might be immigration. It actually looks like the Century Initiative is being put on hold, and the flood of immigrants might actually subside slightly. Not having a firehose of newcomers looking for employment will help ease the suffering of job searchers. 

Still, I predict an increase in unemployment. Currently, it is 6.5% (supposedly…the stats on “unemployment” are pretty crap…it’s basically phone calls asking people if they’re working). 

Debt

Carney is going to tsunami Canada with debt. It’s very likely that whatever the predicted deficit is, it will end up much worse upon reflection. The good news is that this will help in the short term. The money that’s not being grifted away by Liberals and their friends will at least move around the country, offering some cushion for the economic destruction that will follow.

Liberal spin about the debt is that Canada is super low debt compared to whatever countries you put us up against. It’s not true of course; they’re just massaging the numbers. Canada has horrific amounts of debt, both nationally and provincially. This is an important distinction because most countries don’t have provinces that operate as we do at a sub-state level. We also have enormous amounts of consumer debt. 

Anyone born before 1980 will remember what happened in Canada during the 1990’s. While the rest of the world boomed in a post-Cold War era full of internet infancy and low interest rates…Canada suffered from brutal austerity. Right now we’re in the late-80s stage of debt spiralling again, but get ready, it won’t be long before we’re going to feel a crush of consequence.

It might still take a few years, and perhaps by then Carney will be living it large in Monaco or something, but the stage is being set for total debt annihilation. This is bust out Canada mode, so get ready for it in the long run. 2026 will probably be fine on this front though.

Inflation

Inflation will likely be tempered in Canada by our declining economy. Prices can rise, but people will refuse to buy because everyone will be getting poorer. Can our government's money-printing out match our declining living standards? You bet! But for 2026, the suppression of an economy in decline will help to mitigate our depreciating dollars.

This will counter all the expert predictions of…

Interest Rates

Currently, official expectations are for interest rates to rise in 2026. This seems to be a result of elite thinking that Carney is some kind of wunderboy who says and does all the correct progressive things, and as a result, our economy will turn around and require higher interest rates to counter the success.

Obviously, Carney is going to fail faster than you can say “ESG and DEI and Net Zero with a side of ice-cream”. The out-of-touch institutional elites across Canada…the same elites that predicted 2025 would have 1.8% GDP growth, are still smelling their own farts and thinking that "Elbows Up!" is a brilliant strategy.

Canada’s decline will necessitate interest rate cuts. 

The danger might be that the money printing goes into overdrive and inflation (collapsing currency) takes precedence over every other metric. However, when every other metric is in decline (housing prices falling, unemployment rising, debt increasing, GDP falling), it’s hard to simply dismiss those factors in favour of stopping the Canadian dollar from going to 70 cents or 68 cents or whatever.

2026 will see zero interest rate increases and most likely one or two more cuts.

CONCLUSION

I might be off, I guess we’ll see. Events can change everything. War is a wildcard. There could be a new election (for what it’s worth). There are lots of variables. Nevertheless, we work with what we’ve got, and I knew in 2025 that the officials were wildly underestimating the decline of Canada this year and I was right.

I’m a pessimist again for 2026. Hopefully, I’m wrong actually, but it’s best to be prepared.

Always be prepared.