April 26th, 2025 | RYAN TYLER

Analysis: This Will Be The Weirdest, Or The Most Typical Canadian Election Ever

If polls are accurate, Mark Carney will be the Prime Minister for four more years.

By midnight on April 28, Canadians will either be shocked, or they'll be in bed early after seeing the same typical and predictable election results that Canadian democracy has become accustomed to. Conservatives are hoping hard and engaging in wishful thinking, while Liberals might be over-confident—but, like many have said, if there was ever an election that could deliver a surprise, it would be this one.

Despite a dead heat in popular support, the Liberals have an advantage. A straight tie in the popular vote is a win for Liberals, while Conservatives need to lead Liberals by a minimum of 4% nationally to even come close to a majority government. This is due mostly to the heavy seat distributions in Toronto and Montreal—where Liberals always do well. However, strangely, no pollsters have thoroughly polled the GTA like they did in 2021 and 2019. Right now, days before the election, there is no reliable data from deep inside Toronto, which is suspicious.

In the last by-election, under Trudeau, Conservatives swept a Liberal stronghold inside the GTA. According to polls, Carney has resurrected the Liberal Party on a national level, while some polls show a Liberal lead in Ontario and others show a tie. However, no polls with adequate samples show us who is leading in the GTA or in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul's.

If Conservatives and Liberals are tied in a dead heat in parts of the GTA and suburban Toronto, this race will be entirely different than what polling models and seat projections are showing.

Judging by the 42% national average currently being held by Liberals, we can assume many of the usual Liberal strongholds are safe. A lot of that strength in popular support is coming from Ontario and Atlantic Canada, so based on that metric, we may be looking at a natural Liberal lead in the GTA and other Liberal strongholds across Ontario and Montreal. If that is the case and all the current numbers hold, the Liberals will win a majority government despite the Conservatives polling close behind with 39%.

It's sad, but that's how Canada works right now. In any case, here are the most probable outcomes.

Absolute Chaos

If Conservatives are tied and have a chance in the GTA and suburban Toronto, we will see one of the weirdest and most chaotic elections in Canadian history. In that case, we would see a basic tie in the national seat count and no clear victory by midnight. If Conservatives manage to snatch seats in the GTA and parts of Ontario by slim margins, recounts could go on for weeks and we may not see a resolution immediately.

With Liberals and Conservatives pulling in around 150 seats each, we could have both sides trying to declare victory and form governments, and broker alliances with the NDP and Bloc. However, if this outcome comes to fruition, the NDP's seat count will have collapsed dramatically, leaving the Bloc in a more powerful position. In such a case, Liberals and NDP may no longer have enough seats to form government without the Bloc's support. 

If the Bloc chooses to support a Conservative government, Pierre Poilievre would become the Prime Minister and Mark Carney would likely resign. Carney wanted to become our instant Prime Minister and have absolute authority, so a minority Conservative government backed by the Bloc would be more than he bargained for. He won't want to sit in parliament as the leader of the opposition. That's not what he signed up for. That will end up as Chrystia Freeland's job.

If the Bloc backs another Liberal government, things will be different, but the same. We would likely end up back in an election within six months—mostly because, again, Carney is looking to be our head of state and nothing less. This whole politics game and wheeling and dealing wasn't his expectation. He wanted instant power. If he doesn't get it, he's out.

The Expected, Boring Outcome

Everyone is expecting a Liberal majority. If Liberals finish at 42% and sweep the GTA and Montreal like they always do, they will win a minimum of 181 seats. If Liberals are leading in 120-140 seats by the time Saskatchewan starts counting votes, it will be a majority Liberal government. If Liberals open the night in Atlantic Canada by leading in 27 ridings by the time 50% of Atlantic polls are reporting, the likelihood of a Liberal majority will be 75% before we even get to Ontario.

A strong showing in Atlantic Canada isn't a guaranteed win for Liberals, but it will confirm the idea that they have been leading across the country with 42% and that Mark Carney has indeed revived the Liberals. If Conservatives fail to lead in more than 5 seats early in Atlantic Canada, the election will probably end the way all the mainstream pundits are expecting.

A Minority Government

The chance of a Conservative minority is slim, but not impossible. If the first scenario comes even halfway true, Pierre Poilievre could become the Prime Minister. However, his government could get toppled quickly without support from the Bloc. The more likely outcome is a Liberal minority, but it's not more likely than a Liberal majority.

At the start of the night in Atlantic Canada, Conservative strength would manifest in the form of a lead in at least 8 seats by the time 50% of Atlantic polls are reporting. If this happens, it probably means Poilievre will show similar strength in Ontario—but it won't be enough to overtake Liberals nationally.

If we get to Saskatchewan and Liberals are only leading by 119 seats or less, it will be a sign of trouble for Mark Carney.

With polls showing a dead heat, there is still a strong chance for Conservatives to block a Liberal majority. With Liberals truly polling at 42%, it would be a steep mountain to climb, but Tory strength in parts of Ontario, Manitoba and BC could upend Mark Carney's chances at getting his coveted majority and, therefore, his dream of absolute power.

A Shocking Conservative Majority

For Conservatives to win more than 172 seats, all the polls would have to be wrong. With Liberals polling at 42% on average, and Conservatives at 39%, a majority for Pierre Poilievre is not possible. The very idea of a Conservative majority banks entirely on every reputable pollster from the past three elections being absolutely wrong. That includes Leger, Innovative Research, Mainstreet, and Abacus Data.

But, is it completely outside the realm of possibility? No. Not if you consider the margins of error.

The average margin of error in all the major polls with sample sizes of 1500 or more is 2-3%. In a race this close, that margin could flip from 42% for Liberals to 42% for Conservatives. In such a case, a Conservative minority becomes the more probable outcome. For a Conservative majority, we would need a 4% lead—which is currently outside the margin of error, but not necessarily impossible.

To validate the idea that the margins could flip, we have polls like Innovative Research, which have shown an absolute dead heat of 38% between Liberals and Conservatives. Had there been absolutely zero polls showing a true dead heat, we wouldn't be able to question the margins of error in other polls. The reason for this is simple: corroboration. If every single poll, without any outliers, showed the Liberals at 41% and the Conservatives at 39%, we could be confident in a slim Liberal lead, and we would probably disregard the margins of error.

As it stands now, not only have we had polls showing a true dead heat, we have had rolling polls showing brief Conservative leads.

On several occasions in April, three separate pollsters released polls showing the Conservatives in the lead. On April 18 and 19, Mainstreet Research showed the Conservatives at 43% and Liberals at 41% and 39% respectively. On April 20 and 21, Mainstreet showed a true dead heat between the two parties. On April 21, Innovative Research showed Conservatives with a 5% lead.

The biggest kicker of them all was EKOS, which showed a brief “one-night lead” by Conservatives on April 21.

These leads happened after the English debates, but they are significant. For Conservatives to be in the lead, at any point, during an election that every pundit has called a win for Liberals is noteworthy. With pundits and pollsters unanimously saying “the race has tightened”, we have further evidence that those margins of error could come into play on election night.